And back to Microsoft and PCs. You could have found plenty of people 20 years ago who would have agreed that, yes, as poor countries developed, then all the people would end up with PCs. And just think of how large Microsoft’s market could get then! But this isn’t what seems to be happening.
Yes, sure, as people get richer they are indeed getting computers. But they’re not PCs so much. Instead they’re those rather smaller things we call smartphones. Using China as a guide, we might then conclude that, just as with the landlines, they’re just never going to have a PC. They’re going to skip that stage entirely and move from pen and paper (or carrier pigeon) to the internet enabled smartphone.